Waves (WAVES) lost around half its value in April so far and risks further correction due to weakening technical and fundamental factors.
WAVES price risks another 30% decline
WAVES dropped from nearly $64 on March 31 to around $27.50 on April 7 — down by over 55%. As it fell, the WAVES/USD pair also broke below a key support confluence, hinting further correction.
Notably, the confluence comprises WAVES’ 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) and the 61.8% Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph — drawn from $64-swing high to $8.34-swing low.
Now broken, they suggest that WAVES’ path of least resistance is to the downside, with $25 acting as interim support due to its historical relevance as a price floor in October 2021 and March 2022.
Additionally, WAVES’ daily relative strength index (RSI) also shows room for a further decline, being only 11 points away from slipping below the “oversold” threshold of 30.
Meanwhile, breaking below $25 would risk crashing WAVES’ price to its 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA; the orange wave) near $20, coinciding with the 0.786 Fib line, about 30% lower than today’s price.
The bearish setup emerged amid allegations that equaled the Waves Platform with a “Ponzi,” namely a Twitter thread penned by 0xHamZ, who accused Waves’ team of artificially inflating the price by more than 650% from February to March.
Meanwhile, Neutrino USD, a “stablecoin” backed by WAVES reserves, also lost its U.S. dollar peg following 0xHamZ’s accusations, further dampening market sentiment.
Related: Bitcoin slides below $44K in April first as trader warns ‘something is off’ with BTC
Jolyon Horsfall, the co-CEO of NFT prediction platform SparkWorld, noted that the Waves Platform founder, Sasha Ivanov, “will need to step up if the token is to be revived and the project re-aligned on its ambitious path.” He warned:
“For the time being, the dumping is expected to continue, and the WAVES price may fall to its 30-day low of $21.”
Bull flag retest?
However, WAVES shows some signs of defying bearish predictions while keeping its long-term uptrend intact.
Notably, the ongoing correction brings WAVES closer to testing another double-layered support zone, defined by its 20-week EMA (the green wave) and the upper trendline of its previous “bull flag” setup, as shown in the chart below.
A bounce from this weekly support confluence could see WAVES rally to test its “bull flag” target near $70.
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